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Subseasonal prediction fills the gap between weather forecasts and seasonal outlooks. There is evidence that predictability on subseasonal timescales comes from a combination of atmosphere, land, and ocean initial conditions. Predictability from the land is often attributed to slowly varying changes in soil moisture and snowpack, while predictability from the ocean is attributed to sources such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Here we use a set of subseasonal reforecast experiments with CESM2 to quantify the respective roles of atmosphere, land, and ocean initial conditions on subseasonal prediction skill over land. These reveal that the majority of prediction skill for global surface temperature in weeks 3–4 comes from the atmosphere, while ocean initial conditions become important after week 4, especially in the Tropics. In the CESM2 subseasonal prediction system, the land initial state does not contribute to surface temperature prediction skill in weeks 3–6 and climatological land conditions lead to higher skill, disagreeing with our current understanding. However, land-atmosphere coupling is important in week 1. Subseasonal precipitation prediction skill also comes primarily from the atmospheric initial condition, except for the Tropics, where after week 4 the ocean state is more important.

 

Abstract. Global change research demands a convergence among academic disciplines to understand complex changes in Earth system function. Limitations related to data usability and computing infrastructure, however, present barriers to effective use of the research tools needed for this cross-disciplinary collaboration. To address these barriers, we created a computational platform that pairs meteorological data and site-level ecosystem characterizations from the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) with the Community Terrestrial System Model (CTSM) that is developed with university partners at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). This NCAR–NEON system features a simplified user interface that facilitates access to and use of NEON observations and NCAR models. We present preliminary results that compare observed NEON fluxes with CTSM simulations and describe how the collaboration between NCAR and NEON that can be used by the global change research community improves both the data and model. Beyond datasets and computing, the NCAR–NEON system includes tutorials and visualization tools that facilitate interaction with observational and model datasets and further enable opportunities for teaching and research. By expanding access to data, models, and computing, cyberinfrastructure tools like the NCAR–NEON system will accelerate integration across ecology and climate science disciplines to advance understanding in Earth system science and global change.

 

Linear encoding of sparse vectors is widely popular, but is commonly data-independent – missing any possible extra (but a priori unknown) structure beyond sparsity. In this paper we present a new method to learn linear encoders that adapt to data, while still performing well with the widely used l1 decoder. The convex l1 decoder prevents gradient propagation as needed in standard gradient-based training. Our method is based on the insight that unrolling the convex decoder into T projected subgradient steps can address this issue. Our method can be seen as a data-driven way to learn a compressed sensing measurement matrix. We compare the empirical performance of 10 algorithms over 6 sparse datasets (3 synthetic and 3 real). Our experiments show that there is indeed additional structure beyond sparsity in the real datasets; our method is able to discover it and exploit it to create excellent reconstructions with fewer measurements (by a factor of 1.1-3x) compared to the previous state-of-the-art methods. We illustrate an application of our method in learning label embeddings for extreme multi-label classification, and empirically show that our method is able to match or outperform the precision scores of SLEEC, which is one of the state-of-the-art embedding-based approaches. 

ABSTRACT In recent years, considerable progress has been made in topologically and functionally characterizing integral outer membrane proteins (OMPs) of Treponema pallidum subspecies pallidum , the syphilis spirochete, and identifying its surface-exposed β-barrel domains. Extracellular loops in OMPs of Gram-negative bacteria are known to be highly variable. We examined the sequence diversity of β-barrel-encoding regions of tprC , tprD , and bamA in 31 specimens from Cali, Colombia; San Francisco, California; and the Czech Republic and compared them to allelic variants in the 41 reference genomes in the NCBI database. To establish a phylogenetic framework, we used T. pallidum 0548 ( tp0548 ) genotyping and tp0558 sequences to assign strains to the Nichols or SS14 clades. We found that (i) β-barrels in clinical strains could be grouped according to allelic variants in T. pallidum subsp. pallidum reference genomes; (ii) for all three OMP loci, clinical strains within the Nichols or SS14 clades often harbored β-barrel variants that differed from the Nichols and SS14 reference strains; and (iii) OMP variable regions often reside in predicted extracellular loops containing B-cell epitopes. On the basis of structural models, nonconservative amino acid substitutions in predicted transmembrane β-strands of T. pallidum repeat C (TprC) and TprD2 could give rise to functional differences in their porin channels. OMP profiles of some clinical strains were mosaics of different reference strains and did not correlate with results from enhanced molecular typing. Our observations suggest that human host selection pressures drive T. pallidum subsp. pallidum OMP diversity and that genetic exchange contributes to the evolutionary biology of T. pallidum subsp. pallidum . They also set the stage for topology-based analysis of antibody responses to OMPs and help frame strategies for syphilis vaccine development. IMPORTANCE Despite recent progress characterizing outer membrane proteins (OMPs) of Treponema pallidum , little is known about how their surface-exposed, β-barrel-forming domains vary among strains circulating within high-risk populations. In this study, sequences for the β-barrel-encoding regions of three OMP loci, tprC , tprD , and bamA , in T. pallidum subsp. pallidum isolates from a large number of patient specimens from geographically disparate sites were examined. Structural models predict that sequence variation within β-barrel domains occurs predominantly within predicted extracellular loops. Amino acid substitutions in predicted transmembrane strands that could potentially affect porin channel function were also noted. Our findings suggest that selection pressures exerted within human populations drive T. pallidum subsp. pallidum OMP diversity and that recombination at OMP loci contributes to the evolutionary biology of syphilis spirochetes. These results also set the stage for topology-based analysis of antibody responses that promote clearance of T. pallidum subsp. pallidum and frame strategies for vaccine development based upon conserved OMP extracellular loops.